Market Wrap – Dow Jones +597 points for the Week

By Robert Perrego, at 4:57 pm on July 17th, 2009

What do you get when you mix a Goldman earnings blow out with a JP Morgan beat, throw in some lower than expected jobless claims and top it all off with a housing starts increase that is more than expected AND more than last month?

Well, you sure do not get a sell off.  There was only one economic release this morning and that was housing starts, which came in above last months (0.532M) and also above consensus for this month (0.530M) laying down a surprising 0.582M number.

After watching the market practically go vertical for 4 days it is very common to see a sell-off on a Friday, but the housing number this morning has the Bulls holding on for more upside gains.  Goldman’s earnings blow out sparked a 597 point (7.3%) rally this week that today tacked an additional 32 points on the Dow.  The rally had follow through and each day we got a little more good news to keep it going.

Fridays trading was pretty uneventful with the big news of the day being that CIT (NYSE: CIT) is in talks with JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) for short-term financing and hopefully avoiding a bankruptcy that would be the fourth largest of all time.  BofA and Citigroup, two of the poster-children for the financial diasaster, both beat earnings before the open this morning and both stocks closed lower today.  On the week Citi was up 14% and BofA was up 11% before trading opened this morning and after they reported earnings.  Solid moves already and their numbers did not come in as shiny as Goldman’s so the stocks sold off today.  Bank of America $0.33 vs. $0.28 and Citigroup $0.49 vs. $0.37.

The Dow finished up 32.12 (+0.36%, 8743), S&P 500 -0.36 points (-0.03%, 940.38) and the Nasdaq 100 +8.39 (+0.55%, 1527.26).

CIT added 29 cents which is a 71.22% gain closing at $0.70.

Energy closed up 0.57% as the sector leader and Finance closed down 0.89% as the laggard.  Oil closed up $1.54 as the strong housing data once again brought thoughts of better future economic activity to the forefront of traders minds. New York Spot Gold finished basically flat on the day.

The noise out of D.C. is all about health care with word the Democrats do not have all the votes they need with the Blue Dog Democrats block saying the bill wont get out of committee.  What still remains to be seen is who twists who’s arm behind closed doors and whatever political games get played will be in full swing soon.  Obama was on T.V. (again) today saying that we need to do something about health care immediately or some type of earth shattering calamity will result.  Is it me or does he predict the worst possible result EVERY time he wants to jam some legislation through and that we all should just agree with him and go sheepishly about our business?  TARP, The ‘Economic Recovery Act’, the ice caps are going to melt and we are all going to drown and now, if we don’t spend $1 trillion or more right now, yesterday if we can manage it, we are going to go bankrupt? (actually credit Joe Biden with that oxymoronic comment – he is becoming the best foot in mouth politician in history and keeping comedians employed across the country).

Well it seems we made it through another week and we actually added 597 points to the Dow.  Not a bad week.  Hopefully we don’t all drown this weekend.

Now here are a few of the larger companies reporting next Monday and Tuesday you may want to keep an eye on;

Monday

HAL  $0.28 expected, before the open

TXN $0.18 expected, after the close

LM $0.22 expected. after the close

Tuesday

AAPL $1.16 expected after the close

BLK $1.58 expected, before the open

CAT $0.22 expected, before the open

DD $0.53 expected, before the open

STT $0.97 expected, before the open

YHOO $0.08 expected, after the close

Wednesday Market Wrap – Flat Line Day

By Robert Perrego, at 4:24 pm on June 17th, 2009

After two days of downside moves today’s market started with a whisper and ended with a yawn.  Standard and Poor’s lowered their ratings on 22 banks, while 10 banks announced they would be re-paying approximately $70 Billion in TARP money.  The CPI numbers came in whispering deflation still, not the feared inflation the market has been expecting as a result of the government running the printing presses overtime.

CPI only crept up 0.1% in May but it was the first increase in 3 months.  With credit hard to find and credit card companies pulling in the consumer credit level, prices had actually been dropping even in the face of multi-trillion dollar budget deficits and TARP’s, TALF’s, etc… promising, printing and throwing bailout money all over the world.  The CPI did creep up into the positive so only time will tell in the current deflation-inflation debate if we have just seen an inflection point.

The Dow closed down 7.49 at 8497.18 after trading in a sideways flat day, all day long.  The S&P was equally boring and closed down 1.26 and the Nasdaq closed on the positive side up 12.64.

Obama was on TV again today (surprise!), addressing his financial regulation reform proposals which creates new regulatory entities and merges a few.  The final form of this move is yet to be known and thus far pretty much only gave the talking heads something to say so they didn’t sound like a boxing announcer stretching out time and filling dead space after a first round knock out.

FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX), which some consider a bell weather of the economy, cut their outlook for its first quarter of 2010 after reporting better than expected earnings.  FDX dropped 72 cents on the day to close at $50.64 (-1.4%).  FedEx is considered an economic bell weather as the level of shipping is directly proportional to the level of economic activity.  Their lowering of future expectation does not bode well for any ‘green shoots’ for the economy.

Oil closed up 56 cents a barrel at $70.87 and New York Spot Gold was up $4.40 to $939.20 at 4:19 p.m. est.

Pretty much a boring day, but better than the last two days for the Bulls.

Take your job (TARP money) and shove it…

By Robert Perrego, at 6:56 pm on April 5th, 2009

So the US Taxpayer gets nailed with debt and government spending to bail out the banks and everyone gets pissed off.  Why is the taxpayer bailing out these fat-cat banks all the common people ask, and rightfully so.

The politicians all rumble and make noise about how evil the banks and their CEO’s are, and how this is PUBLIC MONEY!  Shame on you Mr. Banker!

So riddle me this Batman – why is it that when some of these big banks want to PAY THE TAXPAYERS MONEY BACK – Obama won’t let them?

Does ANYONE know an Accountant?

By Robert Perrego, at 10:12 am on March 18th, 2009

The TARP started out at $750 billion and then we got $787 billion in that ’stimulus’ bill and then the TALF or whatever the hell they are calling it threw in hundreds of billions more.

Then, socialized health care was intitially called in at something like $640 billion over the next ten years and then you start hearing $1.5 trillion thrown around when talking about a ‘realistic number’.

And now – the $650 billion or so cap and trade number – well it is now up to $2 trillion.

That is it – I now think every single person in Washington D.C. is incompetent and cannot do basic arithmetic.

How About a Bi-Partisan Crazy Idea for a Spending Solution?

By Robert Perrego, at 2:01 am on February 9th, 2009

Ok – whether you call it a stimulus plan or welfare spending the one thing this massive $900 billion bill has in common is some major spending.  Obama keeps blowing the urgency horn and telling stories of gloom and doom if the Republican Senators do not get in line and vote his bill through and the Republicans complain of too much wasteful spending.

Obama’s newly appointed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is delaying his ‘bad bank’ or ‘fiscal rescue’ plan so the Senators can all concentrate on arguing with each other.  Hey Tim – how about you do your job (and make sure you pay your taxes after getting paid to do your job) and finish the other plan your office was involved with first?

Now here is a crazy idea – how about ALL first things first.

Currently there is still about $350 billion of unallocated TARP funds the government is still holding even while they are all saying the banks are hurting.  BIG, BIG, BIG question #1 – WHY?

Crazy as it may seem, how about we deploy that already allocated money and see if it helps before we make a lot of other decisions?  Now this may seem like another big dumb crazy question if you are a politician but if you are a reasonable citizen this might even seem like common sense, why don’t we just pass the $200 billion or so of that monstrous $900 billion bill that both sides agree upon?  OH YEAH – the transportation pieces and the clean energy stimulus parts and lets throw some education spending in too.  You know which parts Mr. Dumbocrat and Mr. Reschlublican, the parts that will help us while you bicker amongst yourselves – YEAH – those parts!

Unfortunately I know exactly why they will not just do what is best for us; the Dumbocrats have a lot of welfare spending in there they want to piggyback through and they tried to bribe the Reschlublicans with tax cuts to get their needed few votes.  There is a bit for both sides of the aisle but a whole lot of Medicaid and other welfare program boosts so the Reschlublicans are not biting even for the $238 billion or so in tax cuts.

This bill is huge and some parts are controversial and which parts all depends on which side you are on.  What about the rest of us in the middle that just might need a few jobs and a better economy?

If they really cared about us the truly stimulus parts would already be passed.

We all know poli-trick-tions are playing games but do the right thing.  For a change!

Please!