State of the Union 2010: Jobs! Finally!

By Robert Perrego, at 11:54 pm on January 27th, 2010

Well something funny happened on the way to the office in Washington D.C., the politicians figured out that health care is not what we think is most important right now, but jobs.  Jobs, jobs and more jobs.  Hopefully the impetus behind this newly found, and more correct focus, is not the looming 2010 elections, but the fact that 1 in 10 working age Americans is out of work.

After the opening few minutes of rah-rah lines, President Obama stated that he bailed out the banks and hated doing it.  He reiterated this three time for effect to interrupting applause.  I rewound my DVR to check and make sure he didn’t say “I hate banks”, and he didn’t.

Next up during the State of Union address, President Obama’s first, he got onto the jobs issue.  The first thing to note was that when the politicians in attendance gave a standing ovation to this point, all those sitting to Obama’s left, ironically, stayed rooted to their seats.  These people, of course, were the Republicans and we refer to them as ‘The Right.’  Maybe someone screwed up the seating chart, I don’t know.  When the demand for a new jobs bill was announced by Obama, ALL of the vote loving politicians stood up.

This was amazing as it might be the first bi-partisan movement in Washington D.C. since January 2009 – standing up together.  As we all learned to stand up and sit down together in kindergarten and the first grade, there is still hope for the constipation of the nation in our capitol.  First we get these popularity contest winners to stand up and sit down together and you never know what is possible then… maybe some sensible economics programs and laws?

Obama then went on to state a few ideas of his to help get more Americans back to work;

1) $30 Billion from the TARP program to help community banks give small business loans.

2) A small business tax cut to those that hire new workers or raise wages.

3) Eliminate small business capital gains taxes.

4) Tax incentives for all businesses, large and small, to invest in new plants and equipment.

Items 1,2 and 4 sound great to me.  Item 3 is a bit misleading as a large number of small businesses do not pay capital gains taxes at all as the profits from these businesses are taken as income by the owners.  Maybe it will help some, so let’s roll with the guy – he seems to be trying now.

One of the most entertaining parts of The Address was when Obama got onto green energy.  When Obama mentioned the “overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change”, most the people in attendance started laughing.  They didn’t just chuckle either, they laughed, and this seems to indicate that maybe not everyone is convinced about all this evidence, especially the politicians.  Biden started laughing, Pelosi cracked a smile and even Obama, as he was trying to continue his speech, let a sly smile crack.  BUT…

“But even if you doubt the evidence, providing incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future – because the nation that leads the clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the global economy. And America must be that nation.”

…Obama went on to say.  I am a ‘man-made global warming’ doubter, and I think the science has been steered for political gain and personal profit.  BUT, Obama is right on this point.  The green energy sector will continue to grow and generate jobs, profits and scientific breakthroughs and America should lead that charge, if for no other reason than to break our addiction to oil from the Middle East.  Now the crucial thing to do is not to kill the old energy infrastructure right off, but to stimulate the green sector and this means ‘cap and trade’ is still a bad idea.  Only time will tell how they roll with this one.

A bit later in his speech came health insurance reform.  We certainly have not spent enough time on this one over the past year, so Obama figured he would air the issue out again.  Obama mentioned that the Congressional Budget Office is the independent organization that both parties have cited as the official scorekeeper (more on this later). Obama then asked everyone to take a new and closer look at his health care plan.  This threw me for a loop as there are two plans out there, the Senate’s and the House’s, and the Massachusetts election let the politicians know where the voter stood on those plans.  Hopefully it does not get rammed down our throats again.

At this point we got to the place in the speech that everyone was waiting for – a rumored “spending freeze.”  STARTING IN 2011…  You see it coming don’t you?  This basically says “after we spend a LOT of money that adds to our debt in 2010 and I get all my expensive programs through” we will get responsible.

My suspicions were confirmed after the next segment of Obama’s speech;

“I know that some in my own party will argue that we cannot address the deficit or freeze government spending when so many are still hurting. I agree, which is why this freeze will not take effect until next year, when the economy is stronger.  That’s how budgeting works.”

At this point all the politicians in the audience started laughing, out loud.  These were full belly roll laughs and were even louder than when they laughed about the ’scientific evidence.’  It was sad to hear the laughing at their own admission of their propensity to spend OUR money.  That joke is going to cost us a lot of money.  Nancy Pelosi started laughing and clapping upon seeing her partners in crime laughing.  While entertaining, this was the most disheartening part of the speech.

After all this ‘entertainment,’ Obama moved on to lobbyist reform.  While he hit the right notes and called for the right moves, I would like it if he included all the visits he gets from the powerful union leaders in here somewhere.  A step in the right direction was next in line as Obama called for a single website where ALL earmark spending will be posted before being voted upon.  I gave that one a standing ovation!  Hopefully it gets done.

Throughout the speech there were comments about partisanship and the Democrats vs. Republicans issue.  At this point in his speech, Obama hit directly on this issue and called for more unity.  He said to the Republicans that if they insist 60 votes is needed to pass any laws, then they needed to share in getting things done as well.  Hopefully this means a new renewed push to become more open to compromise between parties.  Stranger things have happened.

Obama then moved on to Al Queda, Afghanistan, Iraq and the war on terror.  The President mentioned a new commitment to the VA system and about taking care of our soldiers when they come home.  Obama promised to have all of our ‘combats troops out of Iraq by the end of this office.’  This new promise is; 1) a bit longer than the one year that has already passed (a previous promise), and 2) gives Obama three more years.

At this point I need to go back to jobs.  Jobs, jobs jobs!

Sure there are a lot of problems abroad and we have a great number of soldiers to be grateful to and respect.  Right here, right now at home we need to get this economic engine firing on all cylinders again so excuse me if I stay with jobs.  Jobs, jobs, jobs!

How much is this new jobs spending bill going to cost us?  Obama spent $787 billion last year, which the Congressional Budget Office evaluated and stated that 12.6% was going to generate jobs, meaning that the remaining 87.4% was not.  That means that $688 billion of OUR MONEY was spent that did not generate jobs.  Remember that both the Republicans and Democrats agree that the Congressional Budget Office is the official scorekeeper?

What happened to the $688 billion?  Maybe if that $688 billion was spent more appropriately we wouldn’t need to spend more of OUR money to generate the jobs we need.  Well, I guess Congress gets a ‘do over’ on that one.  Now they plan on going back to the well again and taking more of our water.  No worries mate – the cost on that one was only $688 billion.

The State of the Union speech is an annual chance for the President to rally the country and present his updated plan to the people.  This speech seemed to have elements calling for more bipartisanship, a new focus on job creation, to freeze spending and get the budget and debt mess under control.  Hopefully Obama takes this chance to tack back towards the middle and work with both parties to solve our problems.

More of what we got over the past year we certainly do not need.

Another Day, Another New High for Gold

By Robert Perrego, at 5:03 pm on December 2nd, 2009

At the risk of sounding like a broken record (an ancient device used to replay sounds), gold traded a new all-time high today.  New York Spot Gold traded $1,217 an ounce this morning and speculation about the rise switched from Obama’s Afghanistan speech last night to central bank foreign reserve holdings diversification.  Counter to the trend, the dollar rose, which further illustrates the power of this gold rally.  Usually, if the dollar were to trade up gold would decline.  As a commodity, oil trades inversely with the dollar, and the rise in the dollar caused oil stocks to get hit.  Smith International Inc. (NYSE: SII) got hit for 2.87% (-$0.79, $26.71) as the oil services group was the weakest in the energy sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 18.90 points (-0.18%, 10,452.68) as a late morning sell-off took the market into the red.  The S&P 500 rallied back better from that sell-off and managed to close positive gaining fractionally (+0.38, +0.03%, 1,109.24) and the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 was the strongest gainer but only up 3.11 points (+0.17%, 1,790.82).

I published a piece earlier today that looks at the gold rallies that began in 2005 and 2007 and attempts to predict where and when the 2009 rally will peak.  My conclusion, using these comparisons, was that gold will rise to $1,396 (minimum), and that the 2009 rally should peak between February 8th and  April 20th, 2010.  I know this sounds a bit too exact and a little suspect, but if you were watching the financial channels this week you would have heard numbers ranging from $2,000 to $6,000.

Today, CNBC marched out analyst after analyst with their predictions of gold going high, higher and ridiculously high.  The biggest back-story in gold is the diversification of central banks foreign reserve holdings.  When the largest buyers on the planet start to ante up, there is one direction – higher.  New York Spot Gold gained $18.60 an ounce (+1.56%, $1,214.60, 4:13 p.m.).

The rise in the dollar today (+0.31%) hit oil as Nymex crude dropped $1.77 a barrel (-2.26%, $76.62, 4:05 p.m.)  The weakest group in the oil patch was the oil services (-1.46%) followed by exploration (-1.10%) and drilling (-0.87%).

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is upgrading the airline sector sending UAL Corp. (NSDQ: UAUA) up 12.46% (+$1.03, $9.29).  The other major airlines participated in this rally with AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) up 7.95%, Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) up 7.77%, U.S. Airways Group Inc. (NYSE LCC) up 7.59% and Continental Airlines Class B (NYSE: CAL) up 4.75%.

The Fed’s Beige Book was released at 2 p.m. today and the tone was that the economy may actually be growing.  Do not get this confused with unemployment as that is still a rising number with unofficial numbers running as high as 17.5%.  Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. Jobless Claims will be released with the consensus at 485,000.  The big number for the week is Friday’s 8:30 a.m. Employment Situation release.  The official unemployment number is currently at 10.2% and one consensus I see was for this to stay at 10.2% or possibly DROP to as low as 10%.  I highly doubt this number drops.  In 2010, hiring for the national census could make a dent in the 10.2% number, but right now ‘hiring’ is only a word you can find between ‘help’ and ‘hunger’ in the dictionary.

Tomorrow Ben Bernanke appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his chairmanship confirmation hearing, so get ready for some real entertainment (maybe there is something on HBO).

With No Particular Place To Go

By Robert Perrego, at 4:51 pm on November 24th, 2009

The shortened trading week took a breather today and consolidated the gains from yesterday’s move as mixed economic reports gave the market no direction.  The S&P Case-Shiller home prices report showed the average home value gained 3.1% over last quarter and Zillow.com reported that last week 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since April of 2008.  GDP was revised down, but everyone expected that and Consumer Confidence beat the expected number (49.5 vs. 47).  Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) were the leaders in a dropping Dow Jones Industrial Average as investors bought dividend stocks after Barron’s ran a piece over the weekend on ten stocks to buy for their yield.

Verizon finished up 1.72% (+$0.54, $31.87) and AT&T gained 1.19% (+$0.32, $27.10)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average spent almost the entire day under water, but staged a 2 p.m. rally that failed an hour later as it finished down 17.24 points (-0.16%, 10,433.71).  The S&P 500 dropped fractionally losing 0.59 points (-0.05%, 1,105.65) and The Nasdaq 100 lost 6.69 points (-0.37%, 1,786.25)

The path of least resistance for gold seems to be up.  On a day the dollar was up slightly, New York Spot Gold managed to gain $5.20 an ounce (+0.45%, $1,169.30, 4:19 p.m.).  For the past few nights, CNBC’s traders on Fast Money have mentioned that it looks like a large short position in gold might be getting squeezed, which could be even more fuel for the recent move higher to continue.  With Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) recently upgrading the price target to $1,200/ounce citing central bank buying, it looks possible we hit it before we see 2010.

Oil and gold usually move in concert as both are traded in, and inverse, to the dollar.  While the dollar was up marginally today, Nymex crude lost 1.98% (-$1.54, $76.12) with some sources citing the revision down of the GDP as the reason.  While the dollar is weak, the past eight trading days shows the dollar basically moving sideways, so those long gold or oil specifically on the dollar down trend could be lightening up their positions.  Gold has relative strength while oil does not.  A look at the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) Oil ETF shows that it is breaking down out of the trading range it has been in since October 14th.  Today the USO closed below its 50 day exponential moving average ($38.91) and had its lowest close in over a month ($38.58).

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released today stating that the Committee saw the risks as ‘balanced’ with high uncertainty.  In other words, they are not quite sure what is going to happen next.  We could go this way, or that way.  One thing they seem more sure about is that the labor markets will not recover anytime soon.  Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of next year the unemployment rate expected is to be between 9.3 and 9.7 percent.  This means 2010 might create a few jobs but don’t hold your breath and pinch that penny harder if you are out of work right now.

Trading tomorrow should be moderate in the morning and tapering off as traders hit the exits early for a long weekend.  Beware of thin afternoon action.  On the economic front we have Durable Goods Orders (0.5% expected), Personal Income and Outlays (0.2%, 0.5%, 0.2%) and Jobless Claims (495,000) at 8:30 a.m.  Consumer Sentiment (67.0) follows at 9:55 a.m. and New Home Sales (410,000) are at 10 a.m.

Russian into Gold, Bullard Latest to Speak

By Robert Perrego, at 4:47 pm on November 23rd, 2009

Yesterday in an interview with Dow Jones, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard stated that the U.S. central bank should continue purchasing mortgage backed securities longer than is currently planned.  Bullard, long regarded as a hawk on inflation, becomes a voting member of the FOMC next year and his comments sent the dollar plummeting and stock futures soaring.  Then at 10 a.m., the Existing Home Sales report was released and easily beat expectations (6.10 million vs. 5.70).  This unexpected beat in the weakest sector of the economy further boosted buying enthusiasm, powering the Dow Jones Industrial Average to trade its day high of 10,495.61 at 10:05 a.m.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 123.79 points (+1.28%, 10,450.95) while the S&P 500 rose further up 14.86 points (+1.36%, 1,106.24).  The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 was the percentage winner, jumping 28.55 points (+1.61%, 1,792.94)

This dollar plunge caused the carry trade cowboys to start buying everything, most importantly commodities.  Here is a simple example of how the carry trade works for these guys; a cowboy has a million share short position (44,563 shares) in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index (NYSE: UUP) and the pre-market shows it trading down 20 cents.  On the market open the cowboy makes $8,912 on the 20 cent drop and he now takes that money and buys stocks, so up goes the market.  The price of gold goes up through this same mechanism and also because gold is traded in dollars and regarded as a currency, so a weaker dollar means more of them to buy gold.

The Dollar ETF (NYSE: UUP) dropped 0.75% today with the other widely watched dollar index, the “Dixie” (.DXY) dropping 0.65%.  The longer running DXY is at 75.12 with a 52 week low of 74.68.  Analysts and traders are watching any breach of the 75 level, and then possible new yearly lows below 74.68, as sell signals.

New York Spot Gold traded a new all time high price of $1,174.60, up $23.70 an ounce but settled back to $1,164.80 (+1.21%, +13.90) at 4:20 p.m.  Of the major gold companies by market cap, Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) gained the most, up 3.58% (+$2.18, $62.99) with IAMGOLD Corp (NYSE: IAG) placing second, up 3.43% (+$0.65, $19.58)

Russia’s central bank stated that they had increased their reserves of gold 18.9% since the beginning of the year.  This brings the share of international reserves that Russia holds in gold to 4.7% from 3.4%.  Each week the list of central banks known to be buying gold gets longer.  Sparked by the 200 tonne purchase by India, other central banks have released news or made open market purchases that has shown that the decades of selling by governments is over, and that now they are buyers.  Mauritania bought two tons of gold, Russian reserves are up, China has long been known to be slowly adding to their gold reserves and even openly encourages their citizens to do so.  As the Fed Presidents keep coming out and telling us that interest rates are not going anywhere anytime soon, this gets the cowboys in on the gold buying game too.

Nymex crude traded in a range from $77.15 a barrel to $79.92.  Oil gapped up early but sold off steadily all day finally trading $77.68 at 4:21 p.m.

Tomorrow in our Thanksgiving shortened trading week, we get the GDP report (2.8% expected) and Corporate Profits at 8:30 a.m.  At 8:55 a.m. the Redbook report is released followed by the S&P Case-Shiller home price index.  Consumer Confidence (47.0) is out at 10 a.m.

Gold Moves Higher, Tech Dips

By Robert Perrego, at 10:44 am on November 21st, 2009

Last week saw gold trade another all time high while the overall market inched higher.  The tech sector, as represented by the Nasdaq 100, performed the worst with a weak day on Thursday accounting for most of the loss.  A downgrade of eight stocks in the semiconductor industry, which affected $126 billion in market cap, caused leader Intel Corp. (NSDQ: INTC) to lose over 4%.  The downgrade came on a day that saw the Mortgage Bankers Association report that 14.4% of all homes with a mortgage were either at least one month delinquent on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure, an all time high.

The Dow Jones industrial Average gained 0.46% this week while the S&P 500 lost 0.19%.  The Nasdaq 100 moved the most, but in the wrong direction, slipping 1.35%.  Gold continued its march higher with a 2.9% gain for the week and an all time high close on Friday.

The week started with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaking to the Economic Club of New York.  The dollar peaked this year as the stock market bottomed in March, but has been dropping steadily ever since.  Bernanke controls short term interest rates and this interest rate has a lot to do with the strength of the dollar as denominated in other currencies.  The Fed is in a tight spot here as unemployment is above 10% and if you have noticed an ‘economic recovery’ you are one of the few.  The stock market has rebounded enough to be put in the same sentence as ‘bubble‘, and GDP stopped dropping like a stone, but for most the country times are tough.  The dollar is inherently political too.  If Bernanke defended the dollar by raising rates with the 2010 elections a year out, any negative effect this could have on the ‘economic recovery’ might get him fired.

Bernanke gave the all clear signal to people shorting the dollar, stating that interest rates were to remain low for the foreseeable future.  The dovish interest rate stance Bernanke gave fired up the bulls and they started shorting the dollar and buying stocks.  The Dow Jones rose 136 points and the market broke out to new 2009 highs.

Tuesday and Wednesday saw little movement in the market indexes as San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen commented to her audience in Hong Kong about whether or not The Fed should get involved with the financial markets.  Obama’s visit to China, and his pledge to ask that the yuan be appreciated, centers on the dollar again.  There are more than a few Chinese officials that are blaming the very low interest rates here in the U.S. with creating bubbles in real estate and the market IN CHINA!

On Wednesday the Mortgage Bankers Association came knocking with their first set of bad numbers.  Purchase Applications came in below expectations as no houses being sold means no mortgages applied for.  New York Spot Gold traded an all time high of $1,153.90 an ounce.

Before the open on Thursday, Merrill Lynch downgraded the semiconductor sector and the Mortgage Bankers were back with that huge 14.4% number.  The market plunged off the open and by 11 a.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading 10,256, down over 150 points.  The market crept back and with a spike up at the end of the trading day losses were cut to less than 100 points.  Microsoft came out with an update on Windows 7, stating that sales were at a record pace.  Then something strange happened… on Thursday the dollar rose AND so did gold.

Thursday after the close Dell Inc. (NSDQ: DELL) reported weak earnings.  This added more selling  pressure to the tech sector after Thursday’s semiconductor rout and Friday opened with a gap down in the market.  The market traded lower until about 11 a.m. but then trended upwards for the rest of the day.  By the close of the day the Dow Jones Industrial Index had pared its loss to 14 points .  The dollar rose again on Friday and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index (NYSE: UUP) gained 0.54% on the week.

This gave gold a 2.9% gain on the week and the dollar tacked on 0.54%.  For the most part, the dollar and gold are inversely related as gold is traded in dollars.  The dollar carry trade has linked gold to the market as the carry trade cowboys are shorting the dollar to buy the market, and to buy gold.  These days if the market is up so is gold and if the market is up the dollar is down.

This week the dollar was up, gold was up and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up.  The broader S&P 500 was down slightly so the inverse dollar-market relationship held.  Gold moved higher on two days that the dollar moved higher.  Strange things like this can happen when you reach an all time high as it sometimes seems all everyone says is ‘gold, gold, gold’.  While a mania might be building around gold and one of the other things you hear with gold is ‘bubble’ bubble, bubble’, the fact that central bankers from Russia to Mauritania to Chile are buyers tells me all I need to know.  Gold is going higher.