Market Wrap – IBM gets Analytical with SPSS

By Robert Perrego, at 4:44 pm on July 28th, 2009

Years ago IBM morphed from being a hardware company into a company with tens of billions of dollars of contracts for computer services billed out for decades.  Lenovo now owns their laptop division, they have not made desktops in a long time and it seems the large scale directional moves IBM makes are always one step ahead of their competitors.  Hewlett Packard bought Electronic Data Systems last year in order to get into the information technology and computer services sector playing catch up with IBM after seeing how the contractual revenue streams from this type of business would smooth out earnings cycles.  Basically HP was playing catch up with IBM and now IBM is drilling down into IT buying SPSS Inc. (NSDQ: SPSS) which provides analytics software and solutions and is in the growing field of business intelligence.  Starting to sound like some cloak and dagger stuff right?  Get Smart?

Dare I say it?  Today we saw more evidence of the ‘green shoots’ that were so in vogue recently but seemed to disappear from the tips of tongues of most politicians when the market took its recent down leg.  Fortunately the market has been running up as of late and so I guess we are allowed to discuss the ‘green shoots’ again.  Today, for the first time in three years, the housing market saw prices rise month over month! While the year over year average price of housing still declined, it declined at a slower rate and rose 0.5% since the previous month.  I guess that 0.5% didn’t make all you homeowners out there feel rich as Consumer Confidence dropped from 49.3 to 46.6.

San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, speaking in Idaho today, cited seeing the ‘first solid signs’ the economy is emerging from the recession and all day long talking heads on TV were putting the two words ‘housing’ and ‘bottom’ together in the same sentence.

Putting ‘housing’ and ‘bottom’ together should be a pretty powerful force these days but even though the talking heads chirped that all day long we had a split market;  The Dow finished down 11.79 points after being down as much as 90 points during the day.  President Yellen’s comments may have had something to do with a late day recovery.

Dow Jones  -11.79 (-0.12%, 9096.72)  S&P 500 -2.56 points (-0.26%, 979.62)         Nasdaq 100 +6.16 points (+0.38%, 1605.47).

Gold got hit straight out of the gate down $16.60 an ounce to $936.70 at 4:19 p.m. est.  The dollar strengthened today and hearings about commodities trading took their toll on oil as well.  It seems our all knowing politicians in Washington D.C. have now decided to take on regulating just how much money for how much risk people in the market should be paid.  As we all know our elected officials are the best of the best when it comes to finding a culprit to persecute before the altar of the public vote getting machine and today they decided to go with that old reliable bulls-eye they have had painted on Goldman Sachs back ever since Goldman paid the TARP funds off, flipped them the bird and told us all they were going back to business as usual of making their employees rich.  I don’t know if Goldman is crooked or just that good but they weathered the last storm well just in time for this one.  Oil closed down $1.15/barrel (-1.68%, $67.27).

The leading sector to the upside was consumer non-cyclicals (usually a defensive sector) at +0.72% and tech was up 0.25%.  energy was down 1.69% on the falling oil price and finance was the second biggest loser (not a fat loss show) dropping 0.98%.

Speaking of fat people, the Los Angeles Times ran an article about taxing fat peoples’ food as it just came to light the latest culprit reason socialized health care is so expensive (it couldn’t be that government is just ridiculously efficient could it?) is that fat people cost us a lot more money to take care of, especially once they become diabetics.  Now it used to be that taxing food was a complete political no-no as this was a regressive tax which hits poor people the hardest.  Well the way this is going I wouldn’t want to be poor AND fat because it seems if you give anyone in D.C. these days a reason to tax you, it happens.  So remember, if you want to be fat – don’t forget to be rich too.  Last time we saw a tax levied ‘for our own good’ it was driving the cost of cigarettes through the roof.  Next target – soda – if you can believe it.  I think tomorrow we move on to chocolate and jelly beans and after that the Easter Bunny gets his drivers license revoked.

Market Wrap – $63 Billion and Counting

By Robert Perrego, at 4:39 pm on July 27th, 2009

What happened in the stock market today is not much compared to the Treasury Market.  Today the U.S. Government issued $63 billion in short term bills and also announced, in addition to their scheduled issuance, an additional $30 billion in 1-month bills to bring the grand total issuance this week to $235 billion – the most in one week in decades.

The auctions today met with strong demand (bid to cover ratios of 3.40 and 3.87) illustrating that a lot of people are not too concerned with the US debt level, at least not in the short term.  Short term debt is a lot less risky than longer term bonds as movements in interest rates do not impact the price of fixed income securities as much with shorter maturities as it does with longer term maturities (see convexity and duration here).  As interest rates go up the dollar value (price) of a bond declines and as it is called fixed income, there is very little risk involved with holding U.S. Government short term paper.  Should interest rates spike the debt holder just lets the debt mature in 3 months, 6 months, etc… and then they get their money back.

What does this tell us of the money buying this debt?  This says that there was, today, $63 billion worth of investable funds that was looking for safety not in stocks but in guaranteed debt.  This could be telling us that this money would rather take the very low yield given in the short term Treasury market as opposed to the stock market.  Is the stock market considered to be too high here causing this money to run for cover in short term U.S. debt?

New Home Sales numbers came out this morning very bullish growing 11% in the past June.  That is great news as the housing market is at the epicenter of this economic malaise and still, with great news in the housing market, the stock market went nowhere.  This news should have boosted the market yet the Dow only finished up marginally.

The Dow added 15.27 (+0.16%, 9108.51), the S&P 500 added 2.92 points (+0.29%, 982.18) and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.25 points (+.01%, 1599.31).

Looking at todays top performers list what stands out is that there are a lot of banks near the top.  The second surprise you will see is that The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) was up 15.76% ($1.05, $7.71).  That is a big move as only recently you couldn’t buy a weeks worth of the paper with a share of stock.  Now you could buy a week and give the paperboy a decent tip.  Looks like newspaper is not dead – yet.  Varian, Inc. (NSDQ: VARI) jumped 29.10% on a strong earnings report to lead the performance field, and oh yeah, Agilent (NYSE: A) is paying a 33% premium and buying the company.  A stock to keep on your radar might be E-Trade (NSDQ: EFTC) as their earnings report last week showed they are cleaning up their debt portfolios and have completed a secondary stock issuance to shore up their balance sheet.  E-Trade climbed 8.45% ($0.12, $1.54) and have been beaten down mightily since their stock was in the $20 area.  The last time E-Trade did this back in 2002 the stock rebounded from $4 to almost $30.  Can they do it again?

Sector Watch: Winners – finance +1.25%, industrials +0.49%.  Losers – Consumer cyclicals down 0.14%.

New York Spot Gold added $2.30 an ounce to $953.90/ounce (4:24 p.m. est) but the lack of a significant move above this $950 area over the past week of trading seems to point to a pullback soon.  Gold has been hovering in this area for days and the question is whether this is distribution or consolidation.  The oscillators on the iShares Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD) are approaching the overbought area which also points to a pullback most likely being the next move.  Oil climbed 22 cents to $68.27 a barrel.

Looking at the inflation-deflation debate, the Treasury auctioned 20-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) today at 2.387%.  Right now the regular 20-year treasury is trading in the 4.60% area so that means in order to be protected against inflation investors are willing to give up 221 basis points – that is a lot of yield.  The closer the rate paid on the TIPS moves to the standard 20-year the less is paid to protect against inflation and therefore the less fearful of inflation the market is.  The January 2009 auction yield was 2.50% while the 20-year was trading at 3.85% (135 basis point spread) so this sale at 2.387% shows buyers are more worried about inflation currently vs. deflation than they were 6 months ago as they are paying an additional127 basis points spread (262 vs. 135) to own the inflation protection.

Unless you were in the bond pits or at the auction desk today, not much happened but look at it this way – at least the market didn’t go down.  Also, Obama was only on TV once today keeping his hitting streak alive at, like everyday, but no multi-base hits today.

Market Wrap – A Rabbi, a Mayor and an Assemblyman walk into a Restaurant…

By Robert Perrego, at 4:21 pm on July 23rd, 2009

In what sounds like the opening line for a bad joke, today federal authorities arrested 44 people in New Jersey in a corruption scandal that encompassed pay-for-influence, payouts, kickbacks, illegal kidney transplant sales and money laundering.  The accused include the mayors of Hoboken, Ridgefield and Secaucus, New Jersey, multiple Rabbi’s, a state assemblyman and other politicians.  The joke is on the citizens of New Jersey as their tax dollars were what would be spent to benefit the people buying influence.  Just what the residents of New Jersey needed, more wasted tax dollars. For informational purposes the Bid and the Ask spread for a kidney in New Jersey is $10,000 Bid x $160,000 Ask!

Speaking of kidneys, taxes and health care, there were more than a few traders that cited the diminishing chances of Obama getting his health care reform through as a reason for today’s 188.03 point rally in the Dow.  Polls nationwide show that less than half the country supports Obama on this plan with their major concerns being the tough economic times and the price tag on the plan.  See the bottom of this post for a summary of the top tax rates in the country if the current plan passes.

Before the open Jobless Claims came in at 554,000 close to the expected 560,000 but higher than last weeks 522,000.  This is still below the 4-week moving average which is at 584,500.  More ‘less bad’ news which could have helped the market higher today.

At 10 a.m. Existing Home sales numbers were released and the market took off.  4.89 million (annualized rate) existing homes were sold beating the expected number of 4.85 million and up 3.6% MoM (month-over-month).  Seeing as the housing industry is what tipped the market and the economy into this mess, good news on home sales can provide a solid tailwind to stocks.

If you had to bet whether The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) or Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) would turn a profit first which would you pick?  Wrong!  Today both of these ‘wouldn’t touch that stock with a ten-foot pole’ stocks reported PROFITS!  Believe it or not, the technology-passed-us-by business plan of the NY Times actually stopped bleeding red ink and reported recurring basis earnings of $0.08 a share.  Not to be outdone in the shocking category, Ford, the non-bankrupt U.S. automaker, returned to profitability posting a $2.3 billion profit which is $0.69 a share.  Ford shares jumped a solid 9.40% (+0.60, $6.98) and The NY Times dropped 1.81% (-0.12, $6.50).

So at this point you have better home sales, a job loss number that compares favorably to the 4-week moving average, two left for dead companies in the black and the possibility that Obama may not get his $1 trillion plus health care plan through and VIOLA!  Rally!  Only surprise is we only went up 187 points.

The Dow closed above 9,000 for the first time January 6th and finished up 188.03 (9069.29, +2.11%) with the S&P 500 adding 22.22 points (976.29, +2.32%) and the Nasdaq 100 was up its 12th day in a row and rose 36.52 (1601.52, +2.33%).

All sectors finished up today with the hottest sector being energy up 3.50% followed closely by finance at 3.43%  and consumer non-cycs were surprisingly strong at 3.04%.  The laggard of the day was tech at plus 1.61%.

On expectations of better economic activity and stronger housing data, oil jumped $1.76 a barrel and closed at $67.16.  Gold briefly traded at its highest level in over a month up $5 an ounce but closed marginally lower ($951/oz., 4:11 p.m. est) as invest-able funds were flowing into risk and return and not hiding out in gold’s safe haven.

Earnings Friday: ACI (-0.06) before the open, DOV (0.46) bto, EXC (0.97) bto, FO (0.64) bto, IR (0.39) bto, SLB (0.63), SEPR (0.39) bto, SLB (0.63), TROW (0.34), WL (-0.20) bto

Economic releases Friday: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 a.m. expected at 65.

Economic Factoids: Projected Top Combined Tax Rates in the U.S. including Obama’s planned Health care Surtax; New York City 58.68%, Oregon 57.54%, Hawaii 57.22%, New York State 56.92%, California 56.58%, Rhode Island 56.22%, Maryland 55.61%, New Jersey 55.46%, Vermont 55.36%, Minnesota 54.36%, Idaho 54.32%.  So now if you are planning to move you know where to avoid unless you like working for 40 or so cents on the dollar.

Market Wrap – Apple and Starbucks do the Heavy Lifting, Nasdaq Up 11th day

By Robert Perrego, at 5:00 pm on July 22nd, 2009

A split market today finished with the Dow and S&P 500 down while the Nasdaq, with help from Apple and Starbucks, closed in the green for its 11th straight day.  The stream of positive closes for the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 ended today with bad earnings reports from Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).  Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) gained $5.23 today (3.45%, $156.74) and Starbucks (NSDQ: SBUX) jumped $2.70 (18.37%, 17.39) on a solid earnings report.

Morgan Stanley saw its revenues fall 11% to $5.41 billion from Q2 2008 revenues of $6.11 billion.  Overall the company reported a loss of 74 cents a share related to repaying TARP funds and in total the company lost $1.26 billion or $1.10 a share.  Well Fargo reported net income of $3.17 billion and their shares dropped 90 cents or 3.55%.  Wait?  The company made over $3 billion and the stock went down?  Wells Fargo also reported that non-performing loans increased 45% to $18.3 billion.  This means that borrowers stopped making payments on about $5.7 billion worth of loans.  Wells Fargo set aside $700 million for loan-loss reserves which is about 12% of their newest raft of non-performing loans.  I wonder how much they would have had to write off if we were still reporting non-performing loans amid mark-to-market times, as opposed to whatever mark-to-model they are now using, and how much their stock would have dropped if their $3 billion plus profit quarter had been required to take a big loss in accordance with this new chunk of deadbeat borrowers.  Ahhhh, semantics right?  No matter the accounting you use its all the same.  Has anyone seen that accountant from Enron lately?

The Dow closed down 34.66 points (-0.38%, 8881.26) and the S&P 500 also closed in the red for the day down 0.51 points (-0.05%, 954.07) while the Nasdaq 100 added another 11.99 points (+0.77%, 1565.00) for day number 13 of positive returns.

Looking at the sectors moving today shows that the only sector down today was energy, losing 1.29%.  Consumer cyclicals were up 0.96% and tech rose 0.92%.

Obama is going to be on TV tonight.  Surprise!  Damning the torpedo’s and any fear over over-exposure, Obama will be making another pitch for his health care bill which has run into resistance from not only the Republicans, but the Blue Dog Democrats and the TV networks.  The networks, always just the terrible capitalists that they are, may be starting to get just a bit tired of preempting all those programs they pay all that money to develop for another stumping politician.  Obama was bumped from 9 p.m. to 8 p.m. as NBC seems to think Susan Boyle, a singing Brit, is more interesting than the umpteenth speech by Obama about his health care plan.  This is great news as now I don’t have to set my DVR to see both the singing Brit and Obama’s speech.  Happy days are here again.

Oil fell 21 cents on inventory data today and a barrel of light sweet closed at $65.30.  Gold spiked during Bernanke testimony in and was up as much as $6.90 an ounce before dropping back to $951.50 at 4:39 p.m. est.

eBay (NSDQ: EBAY) reported after the close today posting 25 cents a share on revenues of $2.1 billion vs analyst expectations of 36 cents.  Excluding items (I love it when I read this, lets ask the Enron accountant what he thinks) eBay beat the 36 cent number coming in at 37 cents a share.  In the same year ago period eBay made 35 cents a share and $2.2 billion.

TRADING UPDATE: eBay trading at $20.59 up $1.14 from the close on earning report at 5:07 p.m. est.

Qualcomm Inc. (NSDQ: QCOM) reported after the close with lower profits of 44 cents a share down form 45 cents a year ago.  Adjusted earnings (the Enron guy again?) were 54 cents beating expectations.

TRADING UPDATE: QCOM trading $46.05 down $2.44 from the close at 5:10 p.m. est.

Tomorrow we get earnings from: MMM (0.94), AMZN (0.32) after the close, AXP (0.26) atc, T (0.51) before market open, BIDU (1.44) atc, BRCM (0.24) atc, BMY (0.47), COF (-0.73) atc, CELG (0.46) bmo, CME (3.23) bmo, DO (2.64), F (-0.52) bmo, KMB (0.95), LH (1.27) bmo, MCD (0.97) bmo, MSFT (0.36) atc, NFLX (0.50) atc, NEM (0.47), NOC (1.29), NUE (-0.59), POT (0.69), HSY (0.35) bmo, UPS (0.49) bmo, WYE (0.85) bmo

Economic reports tomorrow: Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. 560,000 expected, Existing Home Sales 10 a.m. 4.85M expected

Market Wrap – Dow Jones +597 points for the Week

By Robert Perrego, at 4:57 pm on July 17th, 2009

What do you get when you mix a Goldman earnings blow out with a JP Morgan beat, throw in some lower than expected jobless claims and top it all off with a housing starts increase that is more than expected AND more than last month?

Well, you sure do not get a sell off.  There was only one economic release this morning and that was housing starts, which came in above last months (0.532M) and also above consensus for this month (0.530M) laying down a surprising 0.582M number.

After watching the market practically go vertical for 4 days it is very common to see a sell-off on a Friday, but the housing number this morning has the Bulls holding on for more upside gains.  Goldman’s earnings blow out sparked a 597 point (7.3%) rally this week that today tacked an additional 32 points on the Dow.  The rally had follow through and each day we got a little more good news to keep it going.

Fridays trading was pretty uneventful with the big news of the day being that CIT (NYSE: CIT) is in talks with JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) for short-term financing and hopefully avoiding a bankruptcy that would be the fourth largest of all time.  BofA and Citigroup, two of the poster-children for the financial diasaster, both beat earnings before the open this morning and both stocks closed lower today.  On the week Citi was up 14% and BofA was up 11% before trading opened this morning and after they reported earnings.  Solid moves already and their numbers did not come in as shiny as Goldman’s so the stocks sold off today.  Bank of America $0.33 vs. $0.28 and Citigroup $0.49 vs. $0.37.

The Dow finished up 32.12 (+0.36%, 8743), S&P 500 -0.36 points (-0.03%, 940.38) and the Nasdaq 100 +8.39 (+0.55%, 1527.26).

CIT added 29 cents which is a 71.22% gain closing at $0.70.

Energy closed up 0.57% as the sector leader and Finance closed down 0.89% as the laggard.  Oil closed up $1.54 as the strong housing data once again brought thoughts of better future economic activity to the forefront of traders minds. New York Spot Gold finished basically flat on the day.

The noise out of D.C. is all about health care with word the Democrats do not have all the votes they need with the Blue Dog Democrats block saying the bill wont get out of committee.  What still remains to be seen is who twists who’s arm behind closed doors and whatever political games get played will be in full swing soon.  Obama was on T.V. (again) today saying that we need to do something about health care immediately or some type of earth shattering calamity will result.  Is it me or does he predict the worst possible result EVERY time he wants to jam some legislation through and that we all should just agree with him and go sheepishly about our business?  TARP, The ‘Economic Recovery Act’, the ice caps are going to melt and we are all going to drown and now, if we don’t spend $1 trillion or more right now, yesterday if we can manage it, we are going to go bankrupt? (actually credit Joe Biden with that oxymoronic comment – he is becoming the best foot in mouth politician in history and keeping comedians employed across the country).

Well it seems we made it through another week and we actually added 597 points to the Dow.  Not a bad week.  Hopefully we don’t all drown this weekend.

Now here are a few of the larger companies reporting next Monday and Tuesday you may want to keep an eye on;

Monday

HAL  $0.28 expected, before the open

TXN $0.18 expected, after the close

LM $0.22 expected. after the close

Tuesday

AAPL $1.16 expected after the close

BLK $1.58 expected, before the open

CAT $0.22 expected, before the open

DD $0.53 expected, before the open

STT $0.97 expected, before the open

YHOO $0.08 expected, after the close