Insights

iPad or iFad?

As riveting as Hank Paulson’s testimony was this afternoon, CNBC dared to leave Capitol Hill for five minutes to cover the most anticipated tech rollout since Avatar assaulted the bigf screen: the iPad launch.

iPad - Should we believe the hype?

The cumulative release the market felt on Steve Jobs’s modeling of the sleek toy was palpable – the stock skid just after the announcement when it became apparent the web rumors were correct and the wizard of Cupertino simply supersized the iPhone.  In some ways, it was the biggest launch letdown since the Segway.  Still, Apple’s stock picked up as the day wore on and investors crossed their fingers that Jobs still has the magic touch.

But, does he?

There are a lot of questions about the iPad, other than a name that is a headline writer’s dream.  Whereas the iPhone and iPod revolutionized existing markets (smartphones and portable music, respectively), the iPad is trying to create a new market in between smartphones and laptops.  The iPad seems to be only marginally better at doing things like email and ordering movie tickets than its iPhones or computers — certainly not enough for me to drop 4 bills.

In some ways, it is trying to reshape the netbook market, and it may indeed be superior from a design, weight, battery life and connectivity perspective.  However, it misses out on one thing that netbooks do extremely well — allow users to work.  With a netbook, I have a tiny tool that lets me connect to my office network and conduct business anywhere.  The keyboardless iPad, despite the cool factor, is not designed with this in mind.   I don’t see an iPad replacing my netbook any time soon.  And, if it can’t replace the light notebook or my phone, then why should I buy it other than to be the coolest kid at school?

Does this matter to Apple?

In one respect, no.  According to BusinessInsider, the company’s iPhone business made 5.6 billion in Q4 last year — up from zero three years ago.  That is a massive chunk of change, and the company is in a great position with our without the iPad. Apple is known as a maker of markets, anticipating user demand and delivering truly innovate and attractive products, so it has more to lose in reputation than dollars.  The iPad failing would be akin to Pixar releasing a dud – not threatening to the company but, after a string of so many successes, a possible warning that the gravy train may be slowing down.