Wall Street Wrap – Abbott and Xerox go Shopping

By Robert Perrego, at 5:16 pm on September 28th, 2009

Merger Monday returned in force today as Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) put up $6.6 billion cash to buy Solvay SA’s pharmaceutical unit and Xerox Corp. (NYSE: XRX) placed a stock and cash bid for Affiliated Computer Systems (NYSE: ACS) totaling $6.4 billion.  Cisco Systems Inc. (NSDQ: CSCO) caught an upgrade and, with no real bad news today, the market was off to the races.

Abbott currently markets TriCor and Trilipix cholesterol drugs in the United States and pays Solvay royalties, and this acquisition now gives them full global rights to these drugs.  Abbott sells $1.34 billion worth of TriCor/Trilipix and now this acquisition gives them full participation in the lucrative cholesterol drug space.  Abbott gained $1.25 on the day (+2.64%, $48.58) as the market approved of the deal, possibly because the deal is for cash for a proven money making franchise and no dilutive new shares will be used.

Xerox sounds like they are taking a page from the International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell Inc. (NSDQ: DELL)  playbook by expanding into the software and services space and diversifying their business away from producing technical machinery and hardware.  The initial price for ACS was a 33% premium but dropped as Xerox shares lost $1.29 today (-14.45%, $7.68).  Each share of ACS will receive $18.60 per share in cash plus 4.935 Xerox shares.  ACS gained 13.98% on the day (+$1.25, $53.86).

Tech behemoth Cisco Systems got upgraded to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal weight‘ by Barclay’s and jumped 4.37% today (+$0.99, $23.61), further energizing the tech sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 124.17 points (+1.28%, 9789.36) and the S&P 500 was up 18.60 points (+1.78%, 1062.98).  The Nasdaq 100 was the percentage gain winner edging out the S&P 500 up 1.79% (+30.44, 1724.59).

Even with the action in tech, finance led the sector race up 3.96% with tech and energy running even both up 2.06%.  Inside the finance sector, the life/health insurance space was strongest gaining 5.42%, with the Principal Financial Group (NYSE: PFG) adding 8.41% (+$2.17, $27.97) even in the face of a Bernstein downgrade.

Gold was up early, but traded off to finish relatively unchanged at $990.00 an ounce (4:40 p.m.) as the dollar rallied mid-day.  Oil gained 82 cents to trade $67.10 at 4:40 p.m.  The dollar index future, the DXY, was up 34 cents to close at 76.99 (+0.44%).

There were no economic releases today, but the week is full with major releases starting with Consumer Confidence tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. (expected 57.0), 2Q first revision of GDP on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. (exp. -1.2%), Jobless Claims Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. (exp. 537K) and the Employment Situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (exp. -170K, 9.8%).  Besides these headline numbers, there are many other housing, manufacturing and personal finance numbers to fill the week with twists and surprises.

Let’s hope the run up today gives us enough

Xerox acquires Affiliated Computer Systems; White House will commit $35bb to a shaky housing market

By Mark Pason, at 9:37 am on September 28th, 2009

Xerox (NYSE:XRS) gets it going this morning by acquiring computer services firm Affiliated Computer Systems (NYSE:ACS.)  Xerox CEO Ursula Burns lauded the deal, noting that Xerox will become one the the leaders in business-process outsourcing.  The $6.4bb deal gives ACS shareholders $63.11 for each of their shares, almost a 35% premium over Friday’s closing price.  Xerox has risen from the abyss over the last decade, and now they are trying to re-invent themselves, moving away from just selling copiers.  On the heals of the Dell for Perot Systems deal, the message is clear that the money’s not in the hardware, it in the maintenance and servicing.

Solvey is selling its’ drug unit to Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) for approximately $6.6bb.  This latest pharma deal gives Abbott control of the cholesterol drug TriCor.

Oil inches up above $66 dollars per barrel.  Although some are blaming tensions with Iran for the increase in price, the fact that oil is staying south of $70 per barrel, means the Iran situation is not having much of an affect.  Demand is still low and inventories are high.

The New York Post reports that Terra Firma, the Private Equity company that owns EMI, is trying to work with Citigroup to restructure some of EMI’s debt.  Citgroup helped Terra Firma underwrite the $4.7bb buyout of EMI in 2007.  Citigroup was unable to syndicate the loan but has been left holding the entire amount on its books.  Expect Citi to put the screws to EMI in order to get this money back.  If Terra Firma and Citigroup don’t work something out, EMI may be heading toward bankruptcy.

The White House is set to commit $35bb to help give mortgages to low-and-middle income families.  This move will help keep a shaky housing market, above water, at least temporarily.

Regulators are looking to stop banks from depending on short-term borrowing, which ultimately brought Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers to their knees.  The FT reports that there will be rules to help determine if a bank is too dependent on short-term cash.  One proposal would determine how quickly a bank would be able to unwind its positions if the short-term market dried up, as it did a year-ago.

The FDIC’s Board of Directors is meeting tomorrow at 10am.  Expect lots of chatter about increasing the size of their reserve fund.

Finally, the London Telegraph writes that “The Dollar is Dead.”  The Telegraph opines that the dollar’s dominance is over, a casualty of the recent financial crisis.

Wall Street Wrap – No Net, All RIMM

By Robert Perrego, at 5:29 pm on September 25th, 2009

After the close yesterday, Research In Motion Ltd. (NSDQ: RIMM) announced earnings and increased second quarter revenues by 36.8% to 3.53 billion (3.62 expected) but net income dropped 4% to $475.6 million or $1.03 per share ($1 exp.) as a result of an adverse legal settlement.  Then the other shoe dropped; RIMM expects revenue of $3.6 to $3.9 billion next quarter while analysts were expecting $3.92 billion.  RIMM dropped off a cliff in after market trading yesterday and today opened down $12.58.  By the close of trading today, RIMM had lost $14.15 or 17% on volume of 88 million shares.  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) cut their rating on RIMM from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ while Deutche Bank (NYSE: DB) cut its rating from ‘hold’ to ’sell’.

Jim Cramer of Mad Money fame has been touting the ‘mobile phone tsunami’ as the biggest investment wave since the Internet, and he may be right.  The current market penetration of smart phones is only 5%, with much room to grow for all companies in this sector.  RIMM’s grim forecast for the business of one of the strongest consumer product areas, the smart-phone market they are in via the wildly popular BlackBerry, weighed on the tech sector and the market as a whole today.  While the BlackBerry was more popular among business and enterprise users, RIMM reported that more than 80 percent of their new subscribers were non-enterprise customers.  You would think this is good news, right?  Well,  it just may be an indication that the non-enterprise customer, or the consumer, is not consuming so much anymore and may even be consuming less next quarter than this quarter.  This means SELL! SELL! SELL!  And so the market did…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 42.25 points (-0.43%, 9665.19) and for the week lost 155 points (1.57%).  The S&P 500 dropped 6.40 points (-0.60%, 1044.38) and for the week lost 23.92 points (2.24%).  The Nasdaq 100 lost the most in percentage terms today, dropping 0.91% (-15.61, 1694.15) as the tech sector reacted to the RIMM earnings report.  For the week the Naz lost 31.09 points (1.80%).

The other big news story of the day was Federal Reserve Board Member Kevin M. Warsh penned an article in Friday’s Wall Street Journal saying that  The Fed could not wait until the U.S. economy returned to normal before embarking on a rate-raising campaign.  While this would be exercising responsible policy to control possible inflation, as The Fed has pumped mountains of liquidity into the system in reaction to the credit crisis, this possible early tightening could slow any economic recovery.  There is also a market fear that tightening interest rates too early could tip the fragile recovering economy back into a double-dip  recession.

New York Spot Gold lost $3.20 an ounce tacking onto its $15 drop from yesterday.  After a string of closes above $1,000 an ounce, gold goes into the weekend at $990.50 an ounce.  Oil rose marginally gaining 13 cents a barrel to $66.08.  The dollar dropped today (of course, right after I published yesterday the recent negative correlation between the dollar and the Dow) with the DXY dropping 14 cents (0.19%) to $76.75.

We get the last three trading days of September next week and earnings season will be revving up soon.  Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is the first Dow Jones component to report earnings, and does so a week from Wednesday on October 7th.  Alcoa’s report is loosely known as the beginning of earnings season even though many companies will be reporting between now and then.

Have a great weekend!

Wall Street Wrap – Dollar Up, Just About Everything Else Down

By Robert Perrego, at 5:10 pm on September 24th, 2009

The companies in the Dow that were up the most today were McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) +1.04%, and Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) +1.03%, with P&G trading up to within 35 cents of its 2009 highs.  McDonald’s and P&G are considered consumer non-cyclical plays and safer stocks to shift into if you think there could be weakness ahead in the market.

After weeks of getting pummeled, the dollar bounced back sharply today with the dollar index future, the DXY,  gaining 82 cents or 1.08% to $76.88.  This dollar strength drove commodity stocks down across the board.  The Dow Jones most economically sensitive commodity stock, aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) was the biggest loser today, dropping 4.45% or 63 cents to close at $13.51.

The dollar has had a negative 0.32 correlation with the market over the last 120 days meaning that they move in different directions.  As the interest rates in the U.S. are now the lowest of all major currencies, the dollar is now being used to source the ‘carry-trade’, as opposed to the yen, which the world has used for decades.  This selling of the dollar is what is forcing it down and some of that money is being put to use in the stock market.  When the dollar starts to rally and the people that put the carry-trade on need to cover their dollar short, they sell stocks to buy the dollar causing the inverse relationship.

As the dollar and commodities (and commodity stocks) have a strong inverse correlation, when the mindset gets widespread and whole groups of traders short the dollar and buy oil, coal, copper, gold stocks, etc… these trades being put on employ a little more leverage in moving the trades in the desired directions.  The problem here is that when it becomes a ‘crowded trade’, as many people are thinking the same thing, last one out is a rotten egg.  This will cause more volatility as traders basically play chicken with each other.

The Dow has now broken its most recent uptrend line and is looking weak, losing 41.11 points today or 0.42% to close at 9707.44.  The S&P 500 got hit a lot harder dropping 10.09 points or 0.95% to close at 1050.78 with the Nasdaq 100 dropping 14.51 points or 0.84% to 1709.76.  The next two support levels for the Dow are at 9580 and 9380.  The S&P 500 has strong support at about 1030 with a top support level intersecting its still unbroken uptrend line.  The next support level after this one is 1010, which has a top support here and is approximately where its 50 day exponential moving average is right now.

New York Spot Gold was hit on the dollar strength losing $15 an ounce and dropping below the $1,000 level to trade at $993.20 at 4:36 p.m.  Black gold, or crude Nymex oil, got clocked for $3.08 or 4.45% to trade $66.10 a barrel, a 2 month low.  Keep an eye on Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) as it is just breaking down out of a symmetrical triangle, which is indicating another $6 to $8 loss in the stock.

Finance led the losers in the sector race dropping 2.07% with energy a close second dropping 2.05%.  The industrial sector was also weak, dropping 1.48%, with all three of these sectors dropping more than any of the big three market indexes.

Tomorrow’s economic numbers include Durable Goods orders at 8:30 a.m. (1.0% exp.), Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 a.m. (70.2 exp.) and New Home sales at 10:00 a.m. (445K exp.)

Jobless claims news is positive; the Goldman Sachs bonus pool keeps getting bigger

By Mark Pason, at 9:23 am on September 24th, 2009

Weekly Jobless claims Fell to 530,000 – Existing claims are 6.138mm, lower than analyst expectations.  The news is pushing the S&P 500 futures up slightly.

In Europe, stocks fell as Copper and Oil continued to decline for the second day in a row.  Eyes continue to focus on the Federal Reserve.  As the economy gets healthier, will the Fed heed the calls to tighten monetary policy?  Since the banking crisis began, the Fed has added $800bb to the beleaguered banking system.  It won’t be an easy task for for Ben Bernanke and company to  slow or derail the printing presses.

Citigroup is apparently looking to focus their retail banking operations to only a handful of cities.  The banking giant will cut the number of branches in the U.S. and focus their consumer lending practices to credit cards and jumbo mortgages, according to the Wall Street Journal.  Citi is looking to get out of Texas and possibly reduce the number of branches in Philly and  Boston.

Are we really running out of oil?  The New York Times reports that big investments are yielding big returns for the oil companies as over 200 new discoveries have been reported so far in 2009. The oil companies are chalking up these finds to new technologies and R&D, but they still need the price of a barrel of oil to stay north of $60 in order to keep pouring money into research.  New discoveries are on pace for their highest levels since 2000.

In Goldman Sachs news, the bonus pool has grown to $16bb according to the New York Post.  To keep executives home, Goldman is considering paying the top earners in stock.  This number will surely bring out the haters, but the money machine run by Lloyd  Blankfein is expected to report very good numbers in October,  and the money has to go somewhere.  Meanwhile, Hank Greenberg is claiming Eliot Spitzer was politically grandstanding when he brought a lawsuit against the former Chairman of AIG.

Microsoft flatly denies any interest in Electronic Arts.  Phil Spencer, a Vice President of Microsoft Game Studios told Reuters “We have no plans to acquire EA.” It doesn’t get more definitive than that.

California was able to get rid of $8.8 billion of their short-term notes.  Bloomberg writes that the Sunshine Sheet got twice as many orders from individual investors as they did from the institutional side.